About Ragnaar

I am a CPA doing mostly personal form 1040s. My office is in Mound, MN.

Ocean land experiment

Ocean Land

The atmosphere is a plexiglass enclosure. The land is something that will absorb some warmth but hold it for only a short time. The Sun is cycled on and off to see both day and night activity. During the day, the water captures joules and releases some of them. It increases humidity levels. Joules movement is from Land to Water during the day as the Water lags the Land. During night the joules move from Water to Land warming it. At night the sources of joules are the Water warmed during the day plus any warmth remaining from the prior day plus a small contribution from the cooling Land. The Land is a minor source for Water warming. Water being better able to absorb and store joules is the major source for the system.

Now add CO2.

The Land joules have their old path, into the Water. The land can punch more into the Water as less is lost to the TOA. The Water will lose less to the Atmosphere during sunny days. The water has now warmed because of the CO2. Its SW absorption is the same. At first it emits less because of the CO2, but then it has more to emit which does it, while having greater storage. The water has more joules than before and will emit those to the Land for a longer time each night. CO2 has lowered TOA loss until the new warmer equilibrium is reached. Each night the Water tries to reach equilbrium with the Land which has little storage so it’s a waypoint on the way to the TOA. It is the Water warming the Land more than before with the help of CO2.

The atmosphere has no heat storage memory but the ocean does


  • A number of model studies show increases in warming over land are due to warming in the oceans and subsequent transport of heat over land rather than through direct radiative forcing (Compo and Sardeshmukh, 2009;Lambert et al., 2011;Geoffroy et al., 2015). If ocean warming due to radiative forcing is compared to direct increases in sea surface temperature, the warming over land is little different (Dommenget, 2009). This ocean–land effect is much greater than the land–ocean effect, where increasing temperature over land has little effect on the ocean (Dommenget, 2009; Lambert et al., 2011). The oceans are estimated to contribute 80– 90% of the warming on land in one estimate (Dommenget, 2009) with horizontal energy transport contributing 70% in another (Geoffroy et al., 2015). Uncoupling transport between land and ocean leads to little warming for either, showing it is the coupled relationship between the two that is important (Lambert et al., 2011).

    If ocean surface warming is gradual, the land response will be gradual, but if warming arises out of nonlinear interactions between the ocean and atmosphere (involving land as per the coupled transport process above) nonlinear warming on land would follow almost immediately, perhaps driven by the processes described by Reid and Beaugrand (2012). Under this hypothesis, decadal climate regime change arising out of ocean‐atmosphere interactions is capable of producing step changes in mean sea surface temperature. Consequently, these step changes could be transmitted to adjacent continental areas and/or though teleconnections. The atmosphere has no heat storage memory but the ocean does. If the added heat energy trapped by anthropogenic greenhouse gases follows the same path as natural heat energy trapped by naturally occurring greenhouse gases, the interaction of external forcing with internal variability is a logical result.

    The atmosphere has no heat storage memory but the ocean does.”

    It’s not expected to store it. It does remember it has more CO2 in it, so it remembers to retain it longer. We can say that’s still storage, just weak storage. The oceans remember the climate from centuries ago. The Antarctic land ice remembers further back with its mass. The land temperatures depend on what the ocean SST is and how much volume of the near surface atmosphere crosses from oceans to land.

    Uncoupling transport between land and ocean leads to little warming for either, showing it is the coupled relationship between the two that is important (Lambert et al., 2011).”

    Why? The oceans if they don’t transport, just reabsorbs the warmth with their massive thermal capacity or it goes TOA. And the atmosphere over land doesn’t even have the storage to hold onto the additional warmth after raising the average temperature something small but still material and real. It is fed by ocean warmth for sustained material increases.

    Now back to my rigid jet stream theory. West to East flow from the Pacific to the Americas. From the Atlantic to the Europe and Africa. The rigid jet is a warming planet. With good traction in the hemisphere’s Winter. The wavy jet loses West to East transport. Tsonis 2007 talked about a wave 2 and wave 3 anomaly at the beginning of that paper which I interpreted a rigid (2) and wavy (3) jet stream.


Zwally was right

“Projections of Antarctic SMB changes over the 21st century thus indicate a negative contribution to sea level because of the projected widespread increase in snowfall associated with warming air temperatures (Krinner et al., 2007; Uotila et al., 2007; Bracegirdle et al., 2008). Several studies (Krinner et al., 2007; Uotila et al., 2007; Bengtsson et al., 2011) have shown that the precipitation increase is directly linked to atmospheric warming via the increased moisture holding capacity of warmer air, and is therefore larger for scenarios of greater warming. The relationship is exponential, resulting in an increase of SMB as a function of Antarctic SAT change evaluated in various recent studies with high-resolution (~60 km) models as 3.7% °C–1 (Bengtsson et al., 2011), 4.8% °C–1 (Ligtenberg et al., 2013) and ~7% °C–1 (Krinner et al., 2007). These agree well with the sensitivity of 5.1 ± 1.5% °C–1 (one standard deviation) of CMIP3 AOGCMs (Gregory and Huybrechts, 2006).” – AR5
Zwally did a study that said AR5 was right, but of course, he is the outlier. And he’s wrong. He found global warming and of course it’s not true because I’ll say, Antarctica is gaining ice sheet mass on land.

Oceans absorb excess warmth

Jones and Ricketts:

“We propose that there is negligible in situ atmospheric warming and that almost all of the added heat trapped by anthropogenic greenhouse gases is absorbed by and stored in the ocean. It is subsequently released through the action of oscillatory mechanisms associated with regime shifts. Most heat (long-wave radiation) is trapped near the ground or ocean surface and much of that is radiated downwards (Trenberth, 2011). The atmosphere as a whole has little intrinsic heat memory and does not warm independently of the surface.

This is supported by observations on land where the overpassing air mass takes on the characteristics of the underlying surface, achieving energy balance within a 300 m distance (Morton, 1983). When passing from land to water, this will see all of the available heat energy taken up by water if the temperature of the air mass exceeds that of water (Morton, 1983, 1986), with the temperature of the overpassing air mass reaching equilibrium with the water beneath within a very short time. Very little of the heat trapped over land can be absorbed by the land surface, but will be transported from land to ocean within a few days to a few weeks, where it can be absorbed (the high latitudes being an exception).”


Weather weirding

My lake near Lake Minnetonka of about 140 acres in size and with 8 feet of average depth went ice out on March 7th. Wind speeds were at least 30 mph for a sustained time. My lake is now ice in. I do not recall this happening in the past 2 decades. I typically see 2 regime changes per year. Looks like will have double that amount for 2017. I’d say the high winds forced a regime swap removing lake insulation. The lake wanted its ice back and got it.

I’ve also seen another rare occurrence. Typically the creek/ditch outletting to Lake Minnetonka stops doing that before and during Winter. The creek is dry. It will flow all Winter this year as it did a year ago. Back to back occurrences means what? There has not been unusually high levels of precipitation. Call our recent Winters milder. Cold decreases water flow. With global warming, farmland may drain more in Winter. The farmers can get into the fields earlier. They may need less tile. There may be less Spring Flooding in Fargo. Perhaps it’s the case that a sped up hydrological cycle is better.