About Ragnaar

I am a CPA doing mostly personal form 1040s. My office is in Mound, MN.

The climate iron triangle

For a doubling of CO2 the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is from 1.5 C to 4.5 C with 66% confidence. – AR5

For a doubling of CO2 the transient climate sensitivity (TCS) is from 1.0 C to 3.0 C with 90% confidence. – AR4

I just noticed the X to 3X in both ranges. Why is the intermediate in the same ratio as the equilibrium? Is this the climate iron ratio? No.

From here to there the bounds are kind of the same, but more tightly constrained on the way to there. So we could have a hockey stick with a blade near the end. So when we are about to get there, as things settle down, we can get a dramatic up or down turn. That’s my kind of equilibrium.

Expert assessments. That’s what we have.

Fossil Fuel Subsidies

From Wikipedia:

The three largest fossil fuel subsidies were:

  1. Foreign tax credit ($15.3 billion)
  2. Credit for production of non-conventional fuels ($14.1 billion)
  3. Oil and Gas exploration and development expense ($7.1 billion)

The foreign tax credit is not a subsidy. When one of our corporations pays income tax to another nation because they made money there, a credit is available up to the amount of the income taxes paid. To not allow this could amount to being taxed twice on the same income. Individuals can use this credit as well as just about every corporation in the S & P 500.

The Credit for production of non-conventional fuels I think is a subsidy. Scaling it back or ending it should be considered.

Oil and Gas exploration and development expensing is not much of a subsidy. Either the corporation takes an immediate write off or takes it over 6 years for expenses. It is a timing difference and a benefit obtained sooner, gets paid back later. It is a subsidy when considering the time value of money which might be 2% annually. The subsidy amount given by Wikipedia is likely overstated by 10 times, using the time value of money.

Wikipedia has overstated the amount of the 3 largest subsidies by at least two times.

Adapt to climate change.

“Local optimization is accomplished by applying intelligent decision making at the local level.”

https://judithcurry.com/2017/05/19/uncertainty-about-the-climate-uncertainty-monster/#comment-850277

We are trying to solve world problems with mitigation. Say New Jersey tried to prevent storm surges with wind turbines. Wouldn’t their money be better spent on making their coasts more resilient to them?

Antarctica SMB Projections

“Projections of Antarctic SMB changes over the 21st century thus indicate a negative contribution to sea level because of the projected widespread increase in snowfall
associated with warming air temperatures (Krinner et al., 2007; Uotila et al., 2007; Bracegirdle et al., 2008). Several studies (Krinner et al., 2007; Uotila et al., 2007; Bengtsson et al., 2011) have shown that the precipitation increase is directly linked to atmospheric warming via the increased moisture holding capacity of warmer air, and is therefore
larger for scenarios of greater warming. The relationship is exponential, resulting in an increase of SMB as a function of Antarctic SAT change evaluated in various recent studies with high-resolution (~60 km) models as 3.7% °C–1 (Bengtsson et al., 2011), 4.8% °C–1 (Ligtenberg et al., 2013) and ~7% °C–1 (Krinner et al., 2007). These agree well with the sensitivity of 5.1 ± 1.5% °C–1 (one standard deviation) of CMIP3 AOGCMs (Gregory and Huybrechts, 2006).” – AR5

Sea Level Rise and the Little Ice Age

““This result is consistent with recent findings that beside the anthropogenic signature, a non-negligible fraction of the observed 20th century sea level rise still represents a response to pre-industrial natural climate variations such as the Little Ice Age” – a period of low temperatures which occurred between 1300 and 1850.”

http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/barbara-hollingsworth/4-peer-reviewed-studies-find-no-observable-sea-level-effect-man

The Power Couple: This Battery And Jet Engine Hybrid Will Help California Grab More Renewables

“These natural-gas-burning turbines can quickly ramp up and pick up the slack when renewables drop off. But even the fastest peakers take several minutes to reach full power, forcing operators to run them at minimum load to keep them ready, burn gas and put more wear on the machines. “This is inefficient combustion that needs extra fuel, costs money and generates unnecessary greenhouse emissions,” Kivran says. “It’s not the ideal, and not the only possible solution.””

“That’s why Kivran and her colleagues at GE Energy Connections decided to bring peakers and batteries together and wrap them in a single, efficient package with sophisticated power management software. With this hybrid system, the turbine can be turned off, and the battery will  respond instantly.”

http://www.gereports.com/power-couple-battery-jet-engine-hybrid-will-help-california-grab-renewables/

Ocean land experiment

Ocean Land

The atmosphere is a plexiglass enclosure. The land is something that will absorb some warmth but hold it for only a short time. The Sun is cycled on and off to see both day and night activity. During the day, the water captures joules and releases some of them. It increases humidity levels. Joules movement is from Land to Water during the day as the Water lags the Land. During night the joules move from Water to Land warming it. At night the sources of joules are the Water warmed during the day plus any warmth remaining from the prior day plus a small contribution from the cooling Land. The Land is a minor source for Water warming. Water being better able to absorb and store joules is the major source for the system.

Now add CO2.

The Land joules have their old path, into the Water. The land can punch more into the Water as less is lost to the TOA. The Water will lose less to the Atmosphere during sunny days. The water has now warmed because of the CO2. Its SW absorption is the same. At first it emits less because of the CO2, but then it has more to emit which does it, while having greater storage. The water has more joules than before and will emit those to the Land for a longer time each night. CO2 has lowered TOA loss until the new warmer equilibrium is reached. Each night the Water tries to reach equilbrium with the Land which has little storage so it’s a waypoint on the way to the TOA. It is the Water warming the Land more than before with the help of CO2.