The climate iron triangle

For a doubling of CO2 the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is from 1.5 C to 4.5 C with 66% confidence. – AR5

For a doubling of CO2 the transient climate sensitivity (TCS) is from 1.0 C to 3.0 C with 90% confidence. – AR4

I just noticed the X to 3X in both ranges. Why is the intermediate in the same ratio as the equilibrium? Is this the climate iron ratio? No.

From here to there the bounds are kind of the same, but more tightly constrained on the way to there. So we could have a hockey stick with a blade near the end. So when we are about to get there, as things settle down, we can get a dramatic up or down turn. That’s my kind of equilibrium.

Expert assessments. That’s what we have.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s