Antarctica SMB Projections

“Projections of Antarctic SMB changes over the 21st century thus indicate a negative contribution to sea level because of the projected widespread increase in snowfall
associated with warming air temperatures (Krinner et al., 2007; Uotila et al., 2007; Bracegirdle et al., 2008). Several studies (Krinner et al., 2007; Uotila et al., 2007; Bengtsson et al., 2011) have shown that the precipitation increase is directly linked to atmospheric warming via the increased moisture holding capacity of warmer air, and is therefore
larger for scenarios of greater warming. The relationship is exponential, resulting in an increase of SMB as a function of Antarctic SAT change evaluated in various recent studies with high-resolution (~60 km) models as 3.7% °C–1 (Bengtsson et al., 2011), 4.8% °C–1 (Ligtenberg et al., 2013) and ~7% °C–1 (Krinner et al., 2007). These agree well with the sensitivity of 5.1 ± 1.5% °C–1 (one standard deviation) of CMIP3 AOGCMs (Gregory and Huybrechts, 2006).” – AR5

2 thoughts on “Antarctica SMB Projections

  1. now I run the risk of being run over by a freight train for what I am about to ask. My question might prompt immediate accusations of me being a climate denier. But I am truly curious, would love to learn but I cannot find the answer to my question anywhere on the internet. The question is: how can the Antarctic ice sheet be melting when temperatures in the middle of the summer are still below 0 degrees Celsius? Please have a look at this satellite picture of Antarctica today, on January 4, 2020. In the midst of the Antarctic summer it shows the current temperatures in colour zones. The vast blue area is the proportion of sea/sea ice surrounding the continent that is below 0 degrees Celsius. The green zone is above zero. As you can see the whole Antarctic continent is also below 0 currently (light blue and purple) with a temperature low of -31 in the middle of East Antarctica ( the purple zone is below -20). The green circle points to the edge of the continent where it is -3,8. Below you can find the link and see for yourself.https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=124.76,-72.07,679/loc=111.865,-66.058

    • The ice sheets do move into the ocean. There is some surface melting. They’ve found the water around the floating ice sheets is warmer on average. I’d think there’s some sublimation. Assume it is below zero. It will either run away making ice, or stop making ice some distance from the South Pole and stay there. My point is, we can think about would it reach a steady state not much effected by the global temperature? Their interest seems to be at the ocean land interface.

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