SSTs as part of the Global Average Temperature

“The most commonly used data sets combine historical observations of near surface air temperatures at land stations with global data sets of sea surface temperatures (SST) obtained from a changing mix of ship-based and buoy measurements.” – ucar.edu

Minnett argues that GHG increase heat in the oceans:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/09/why-greenhouse-gases-heat-the-ocean/

As I understand it, reduced longwave radiation is emitted from the oceans because of increased CO2. We then measure the atmospheric temperature by counting from the wrong side of sea surface interface when we use SSTs. In joules the amount of increase in the Ocean Heat Content (OHC) is staggering. I think it is moderating atmospheric temperatures. But this moderating should not then be counted as part of the atmospheric temperature. It cannot be both part of OHC and the atmospheric temperature. That’s double counting the same thing.

Let’s consider a significant El Nino. The Indian Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) spreads out to the East. OHC hasn’t changed much as the spread out warm water has just started emitting to the atmosphere. The atmospheric temperature spikes before the OHC has dropped much. As significant cooling to the spread out water occurs, the OHC does drop but atmospheric temperatures measured at the SST also drops which doesn’t seem possible. It seems difficult to reconcile a dropping OHC with a decreased atmospheric temperature. This kind of thing happens when we’re not correctly counting.

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Climate not deterministic

“However, climatology has been slow to respond, despite over fifty years having elapsed since the climate system was shown to be stochastic rather than deterministic over interannual to decadal timescales and perhaps longer (e.g., Ghil, 2012). A comprehensive theory of climate variability remains to be developed (Ghil, 2012).”

– Roger Neville Jones

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/305723870_Reconciling_anthropogenic_climate_change_and_variability_on_decadal_timescales

Wyatt explains an Alternate Hypothesis

“In contrast, the intrinsic-dynamics view envisions network-behavior dominating climate behavior, where parts of the ocean, ice, and atmosphere sub-systems self-organize over decadal-plus time scales, interacting with one another, and thereby initiating intra-network communication, conveying resilience and relative stability to the climate system.”

A perspective on uncertainty and climate science

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One of my candidates for communication, storage and self organization is ice. I think of water as binary. Liquid or ice.