The IPCC versus CPAs

Equilbrium Climate Sensistivity (ECS) is how much warming you get for a doubling of CO2.

“Likely – > 66% probability”

“the ECS is likely between 1.5°C and 4.5°C” – IPCC

What we have is  large error bars that are not useful for helping decision makers. Here is what a CPA says, We are 95% confident the net worth of the company is within 5% of what the balance sheet says it is. See how narrow that is? You can do something with that like make decisions with money. What if the CPA said, we are 66% confident the net worth of the company is from $1.5 billion to $4.5 billion. The CPA isn’t saying anything useful. And he should not be paid and you not should not make decisions based upon what they said. We can see in one case certainty. We see in the other case much less certainty.

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