Hockey Sticks

What does a hockey stick shaped graph mean? Sometimes it means you are seeing on many time scales.

Temperatures going back many years:

http://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/images/vostok.jpg

 

Now compare to this:

 

http://www.john-daly.com/hockey/hockey.gif

 

Look back at the other one and see all the hockey sticks.

 

Now look at this shorter time frame, more hockey sticks:

 

http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics/SkepticsvRealists.gif

When you see a hockey stick blade, you can also think of positive feedback. Is it sustainable? There are a number of cases we can look at where it is arguably not.

“When the decadal oscillations synchronise and the coupling increases, then the system destroys the synchronization and jumps to a new very different (unknown) state.” – Tomas Milanovic.

Think of what Milanovic said and consider a system shuddering prior to its break up. A new system or regime takes its place.

Advertisements

Tomas Milanovic on Chaos

Tomas Milanovic made an interesting post on Climate Etc.

One area he covered was Tsonis et al (2007). “He identifies the 5 fields with 5 oceanic oscillations and quantifies every field by a single number (index). He doesn’t formulate it that way and it is extremely unlikely that a 3D field can be relevantly represented by a single number, but the paradigm is on the right track” – Milanovic.

He may be pointing at adding dimensions to each of the 5 oscillations. I am not sure if a climate index value is made more dimensional by adding the current slope or its recent change in slope.